Sunday, November 13, 2011

College Basketball Mid Major Sleepers for 2011-2012 and Some Tips for Your Bracket in March



by Mike Cannon

We’ve heard plenty over the last week about the Penn State scandal. And we’ve heard now for 135 days about the NBA lockout. But what’s getting overlooked, in a sense, is the start of College Basketball. It’s one of my favorite things to follow throughout the year. Everyone loves March Madness and filling out the brackets. It’s one of those things where everyone seems to get involved no matter how much they watch over the course of the year. Some people watch and analyze games from November on, while others fill out brackets because they’re in an office pool and they've heard of Duke. Either way it’s fun for all types of fans.

Every year during the tournament, we see upsets by mid major teams that very few people predicted. This is partly what makes the tournament so great and exciting, but also, it's frustrating, as it ruins your bracket at times. It’s depressing when you think you’re the smartest guy in the world and predict an upset and it ends up backfiring on you. Or even worse; calling a huge upset that few people have, only for it to come up just short at the last second. There’s also nothing worse than seeing your bracket crumble to pieces while looking across from you and seeing some clueless person, who just picks teams based on colors and names,  be, somehow, ahead of you in the standings . Even the people that just NEVER pick any upsets are annoying. The worst was when I had one girl ask me one time if the numbers (seeds) next to the teams were how many wins they had on the season. I jokingly said "Yes", to mess with her. Then she goes “Wow Duke  isn’t really having a good year huh?” Duke was a one seed that year. I just cringed. It’s these kind of people that drive you nuts if they finish ahead of you.

 "I'm really smart," he's saying.
Anyway, in more recent years, we’ve seen an increase in the number of mid-major and low-seed teams traveling further in the tournament. VCU last year, and Butler the last two years are just examples. There’s others even last year you forget about. Remember Morgan St. over Louisville? Richmond over Vandy? Over recent years you’re hearing more about Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, etc. A lot of mid-major sleeper teams have a good amount in common when it comes to upsetting the big schools. And that is: ball movement, three point shooting, and foul shooting. Athletically, the majority of the time, these mid-major teams can’t compete based on size and physicality. So they have to use something on more of an even playing field like teamwork and shooting as an advantage. Butler’s head coach Brad Stevens, for example, has always said when he recruits someone out of high school he doesn’t go crazy with high school stats, other than three point percentage and foul shooting percentage. From there, he finds undervalued guys and fits them into his system.

Let’s be honest, no one will ever get this perfect, and the tournament is impossible to fully predict correctly, but it helps if you know a little info beforehand about possible sleeper teams. Here are some possible mid-major sleeper teams coming into the 2011-2012 season that may surprise you come March.

An angry Keith Wright, and a scared white boy. 
Harvard: Don’t laugh. These guys may be really smart, but they can also play basketball. The defending Ivy league co-champions are looking to bounce back from their heartbreaking loss in the one-game playoff against Princeton last year that decided who made it into the tournament. They have their leading scorer and Ivy League player of the year Keith Wright returning for another season. The 6’8" Wright is on the Naismith top 50 watch list for this year as well. Kyle Kasey is another athletic big man who can rebound and block shots. From what we’ve learned out of the Ivy League in recent years with Cornell and Penn’s success, and even last year with Princeton nearly upsetting Kentucky first round, is to not underestimate these teams.
Belmont: Sure, this pick looks a lot better based on their close game with Duke last night. But I've had this team on watch for a while. They were A LOT of people’s upset pick last year against Wisconsin in the tournament. They are excellent at moving the ball around. Head coach Rick Byrd has designed a quick- moving offense that finds an open shot; most of the time a three-pointer. The Bruins were one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country last year. Guys like Hedgepeth and Saunders will contribute, and Belmont is returning NINE out of eleven guys from last year. They can shoot, they are experienced, and they can compete with a ton of power conference teams. Watch the Duke game from last night if you don’t believe me. Look out for them.
Detroit: Now here is a team that hasn’t been relevant at the NCAA tournament level since 1997 and 1998 when they had back-to-back years of first round upsets beating St. John’s and UCLA. Since then, not much has come out from them. This year might be different though. They are a Horizon League team, and at this point, I think we know not to dismiss ANY team from there, based on Butler’s success. However, now that Butler lost some key guys, the conference is wide open. Detroit might be the most talented team in the conference. They return 100% of their team from last year. Ray McCallum Jr., the head coach’s son, is one of the conference’s best players if not the best. I was all ready to name this team my top sleeper team of the year. BUT THERE’S A HUGE PROBLEM! Eli Holman, the team’s PF/C is out on “indefinite leave” from the program on accusation of assault. Holman is huge in the front court, and his return is so speculative at this point it’s hard to judge when it will happen, if at all. They are still very good without him, but this sleeper pick highly depends on his return or not. If he comes back though, I like this team a lot.
Long Beach State: Although I don’t know much about this team as much as the others, everything I’ve read about them last year and this year look great. Casper Ware is the only player I’ve remotely heard of, as he is the reigning Big West Player of the Year. When doing my conference tournament picks last year I had them winning the Big West. They were the regular season champions. Came up short in the conference tourney finals two years in a row now. This year could be the year they breakout. They have a tough out of conference (OOC) schedule, but it will boost their RPI big time as well as give them an opportunity for impressive wins.
Scott Machado, Iona Gaels
Iona/Fairfield: I’ll put these two together since they are both MAAC teams. This may be a biased selection as I am a Fairfield University and MAAC fan in general, but could this be the year the MAAC actually gets two teams in the tournament since I was in 3rd grade? Possibly. Siena and Manhattan have certainly given the MAAC a better reputation in recent years with tournament wins. The league is top heavy this year, but the top teams are legit. I’ll start with Iona. Most preseason predictions give Iona the very slight edge over Fairfield, and that is mainly because of the late acquisition of transfer Lamont “MoMo” Jones, who was recently cleared by the NCAA to play. If the name sounds familiar, you might remember him on Arizona last year as a key contributor in their Elite 8 run. Senior Mike Glover is one of the MAAC’s top picks for conference player of the year. Scott Machado showed last year he’s one of the conference’s premier point guards. The bar is high for this team, and they are talented enough to upset someone. Fairfield is another team right up there with Iona. The league’s regular season champions last year come in with a new coach in Sydney Johnson after Ed Cooley departed for Providence. Johnson arrived at Fairfield from Princeton. I already mentioned before how Princeton almost upset Kentucky in the first round last year, but Johnson as a player himself is familiar with upsets. (One of my favorite tournament upsets ever, Gus Johnson alert!!!) The Stags also have very high expectations. They are returning one of the league’s best players in Derek Needham. Ryan Olander and Maurice Barrow will help on the front court. Houston transfer Desmond Wade will be a nice addition as well. But the key for Fairfield is Boston College transfer RakimSanders. Easily could be league’s best player by year’s end. They have key OOC games that they can win like Providence, Minnesota, Old Dominion and Arizona St. These wins could help them a lot at a chance for an at large bid. It would be tough to get two MAAC teams in the tourney, but not impossible. If the Colonial League can get three in last year, MAAC can get two.

Some other notes and predictions:

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